Drop Rate Attempts
Calculator
Results
- Expected attempts
- 50
- Attempts for the confidence level
- 113.974085
- Median attempts
- 34.309618
Gaming results
| Expected attempts | 50 |
| Attempts for the confidence level | 113.974085 |
| Median attempts | 34.309618 |
formula-map diagram
- Expected attempts
- 50
- Attempts for the confidence level
- 113.974085
- Median attempts
- 34.309618
Game math relationship
Formula
E[n] = 1 ÷ p ; n(c) = ln(1 − c) ÷ ln(1 − p)= 50
Note
This is a simplified model: it applies the standard probability or game-math formula to the numbers you entered. Real games add pity systems, drop-rate tiers, rounding, server-side variance and balance patches, so treat the result as an estimate rather than a guarantee.
More in Gaming and probability
See all →Frequently asked questions
How many attempts should I expect before getting a drop?+
The average (expected) number of attempts to get one success with drop probability p is 1/p; for a 1% drop rate, that's an average of 100 attempts, though the actual number for any individual player varies widely around that average.
Why does a 1% drop rate not guarantee a drop in 100 tries?+
A 1% independent chance per attempt means each try is unaffected by previous ones, so there's roughly a 37% chance of still not getting the drop even after 100 attempts — the average is 100, but the distribution has a long tail.
Is there a difference between "expected attempts" and "guaranteed attempts"?+
Yes — expected attempts is a statistical average across many players or many trials, while a guaranteed number would only exist if the game has a pity or hard-cap system; without one, no fixed number of attempts guarantees the drop.
How does drop rate stacking (like bonus drop-rate buffs) affect the calculation?+
A drop-rate buff multiplies the base probability (a 50% bonus on a 2% rate gives 3%, not 52%), which meaningfully lowers the expected number of attempts — recalculate expected attempts as 1 divided by the new, boosted rate.
What does it mean if I still haven't gotten a drop after many multiples of the expected value?+
It's statistically unlikely but not impossible — a truly random, memoryless drop system means bad luck streaks happen to some fraction of players even at very long odds, which is exactly the scenario that pity systems are designed to cap.