Withdrawal Rate Sustainability Path
Calculator
Results
- Ending balance
- $402,467.51
- Sustainable withdrawal
- $54,371.33
- Annual withdrawal
- $45,000.00
- Surplus or shortfall
- $-9,371.33
Portfolio balance path
- Ending balance
- Cumulative withdrawn
Year-by-year portfolio projection
| 1 | 45,000.00 | 33,425.00 | 988,425.00 | 45,000.00 |
| 2 | 45,000.00 | 33,019.88 | 976,444.88 | 90,000.00 |
| 3 | 45,000.00 | 32,600.57 | 964,045.45 | 135,000.00 |
| 4 | 45,000.00 | 32,166.59 | 951,212.04 | 180,000.00 |
| 5 | 45,000.00 | 31,717.42 | 937,929.46 | 225,000.00 |
| 6 | 45,000.00 | 31,252.53 | 924,181.99 | 270,000.00 |
| 7 | 45,000.00 | 30,771.37 | 909,953.36 | 315,000.00 |
| 8 | 45,000.00 | 30,273.37 | 895,226.73 | 360,000.00 |
| 9 | 45,000.00 | 29,757.94 | 879,984.66 | 405,000.00 |
| 10 | 45,000.00 | 29,224.46 | 864,209.12 | 450,000.00 |
| 11 | 45,000.00 | 28,672.32 | 847,881.44 | 495,000.00 |
| 12 | 45,000.00 | 28,100.85 | 830,982.29 | 540,000.00 |
| 13 | 45,000.00 | 27,509.38 | 813,491.67 | 585,000.00 |
| 14 | 45,000.00 | 26,897.21 | 795,388.88 | 630,000.00 |
| 15 | 45,000.00 | 26,263.61 | 776,652.49 | 675,000.00 |
| 16 | 45,000.00 | 25,607.84 | 757,260.33 | 720,000.00 |
| 17 | 45,000.00 | 24,929.11 | 737,189.44 | 765,000.00 |
| 18 | 45,000.00 | 24,226.63 | 716,416.07 | 810,000.00 |
| 19 | 45,000.00 | 23,499.56 | 694,915.64 | 855,000.00 |
| 20 | 45,000.00 | 22,747.05 | 672,662.68 | 900,000.00 |
| 21 | 45,000.00 | 21,968.19 | 649,630.88 | 945,000.00 |
| 22 | 45,000.00 | 21,162.08 | 625,792.96 | 990,000.00 |
| 23 | 45,000.00 | 20,327.75 | 601,120.71 | 1,035,000.00 |
| 24 | 45,000.00 | 19,464.22 | 575,584.94 | 1,080,000.00 |
| 25 | 45,000.00 | 18,570.47 | 549,155.41 | 1,125,000.00 |
| 26 | 45,000.00 | 17,645.44 | 521,800.85 | 1,170,000.00 |
| 27 | 45,000.00 | 16,688.03 | 493,488.88 | 1,215,000.00 |
| 28 | 45,000.00 | 15,697.11 | 464,185.99 | 1,260,000.00 |
| 29 | 45,000.00 | 14,671.51 | 433,857.50 | 1,305,000.00 |
| 30 | 45,000.00 | 13,610.01 | 402,467.51 | 1,350,000.00 |
Comparison
| Scenario | Ending balance | Total withdrawn | Annual withdrawal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline scenario | 0.00 | 1,537,595.29 | 54,371.33 |
| Selected scenario | 402,467.51 | 1,350,000.00 | 45,000.00 |
Formula
W_max = B ÷ [(1 − (1+r)^−n) ÷ r]= 54371.33
Note
This is not financial advice. It is a simplified model: it applies the displayed formula to the figures you entered, uses a single constant rate for every year unless you supplied more, and ignores taxes, fees, product charges and any country's specific pension, benefit or minimum-distribution rules. Sequence-of-returns risk and longevity risk are real: a run of poor early years can exhaust a portfolio that the average return alone calls safe, and living longer than projected is the risk this page cannot price. Real returns can be negative. Consult a licensed adviser before acting on any figure here.
More in Retirement drawdown
See all →Frequently asked questions
What is a 'sustainable' withdrawal rate?+
It's the percentage of your portfolio you can withdraw each year, adjusted for inflation, without depleting it over your expected retirement horizon. The classic reference point is the 4% rule, but sustainability depends heavily on your time horizon, asset mix, and actual market returns.
Why 4% and not a higher number?+
The 4% figure comes from historical studies of 30-year retirement periods that included some of the worst market sequences on record. A higher rate works fine in good markets but fails in the bad ones, so 4% was chosen as a rate that survived nearly all historical scenarios, not the average case.
Does this rate stay fixed every year?+
In the standard model, you withdraw the initial dollar amount and then increase it each year with inflation, regardless of portfolio performance. That rigidity is exactly what creates risk in bad markets, which is why some retirees use flexible or guardrail-based approaches instead.
Is a shorter retirement horizon more forgiving?+
Yes. A shorter horizon supports a materially higher withdrawal rate because there's less time for a bad sequence of returns to compound against the balance. A 20-year retirement can typically sustain a higher rate than a 40-year one with the same asset mix.
Should I use the same withdrawal rate throughout retirement?+
Not necessarily — many retirees spend more in active early years and less later, or adjust the rate down after a market downturn. This calculator shows a fixed-rate path as a baseline; treat it as a starting point to stress-test, not a rule to follow blindly.