Win Probability Points
Calculator
Results
- Expected points per match
- 2.07
- Expected points total
- 78.66
- Loss probability
- 0.17
- Expected wins
- 23.56
Sport statistics results
| Expected points per match | 2.07 |
| Expected points total | 78.66 |
| Loss probability | 0.17 |
| Expected wins | 23.56 |
formula-map diagram
- Expected points per match
- 2.07
- Expected points total
- 78.66
- Loss probability
- 0.17
- Expected wins
- 23.56
Formula breakdown
Formula
xPts = (3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)) × matches= 2.07
Note
Simplified model: these are the standard published statistics computed from the numbers you enter. They ignore park factors, opponent strength, playing conditions and league adjustments, so results are indicative only and not an official rating.
More in Sport statistics
See all →Frequently asked questions
What are win probability points meant to measure?+
Win probability points quantify how much a specific play, possession, or moment shifted a team's statistical chance of winning the game, converting that shift into a point-like value. A single dramatic play late in a close game can be worth far more win probability points than the same play early in a blowout.
Why does the same statistical play matter more late in a close game than early in a lopsided one?+
Win probability is highly sensitive to game context: a touchdown when trailing by 3 late in the 4th quarter swings win probability dramatically, while an identical touchdown in a 35-point blowout barely moves the needle since the outcome is already largely decided. This context-sensitivity is exactly what separates win probability metrics from simple box-score counting stats.
How is a baseline win probability established before measuring the change?+
Win probability models are typically built from historical data on similar game situations, factoring in score difference, time remaining, down and distance or inning, and possession, to estimate the odds of winning from that exact situation. The 'points' awarded for a play are the difference between win probability after the play and before it.
Can win probability points be negative?+
Yes, any play that decreases a team's chances of winning, like a turnover, a missed field goal, or a costly error, produces negative win probability points. Over a full game, a player's or team's cumulative win probability points can be added up to show their overall net impact on the outcome.
How is this different from a raw box-score statistic like total yards or points scored?+
A box-score stat treats every yard or point the same regardless of when it happened, while win probability weighs plays by their actual impact on the outcome given the game situation. This is why a player can have modest traditional stats but a very high win probability contribution if their plays came at pivotal moments.